Reuters (Sep 11): Anthropic courts ~$2T IPO; Nvidia eyed as ~$10B anchor—ask distinct from May’s ~$965B Series H private mark.
Multpl CAPE 41.09 (Fri Sep 11); Motley Fool ~41.7 (Sep 10/12)—still north of 40; only prior multi-month CAPE>40 run was 1999–2000.
Mag7 still ~⅓ of the S&P—concentration as the quiet twin of CAPE (~33–34% Fool Research framing).
Motley Fool (Sep 7): CAPE over 41—most expensive since late-1999/2000 outside that peak neighborhood.
Multpl Sep open ~40.90 / Sep 11 ~41.09—overvaluation horseman still in the saddle.
CAPE still extreme even as flows flee U.S. large-cap equity funds (Multpl Aug ~41.13).
Nvidia IR (Aug 26): $96.2B revenue / $108B Q3 guide—fundamentals fireworks that do not cheapen CAPE.
CAPE remains historically elevated into late August (Multpl Aug ~41.13).
Strong earnings / cooler inflation (Lipper wrap) support prices without resetting the CAPE regime.
Anthropic ARR >$65B (end-July, reported Aug 17) with investor models floating ≥$2T public asks—private growth marks as overvaluation twin of CAPE≥41.
CAPE ≥41 neighborhood on August Multpl series (~41.13 open)—valuation case does not need a new shock print.
Soft payrolls / cooler inflation narrative (Lipper wrap) does not cheapen CAPE; it only lubricates risk appetite.
Mag7 still ~⅓ of the S&P—concentration remains the quiet twin of CAPE≥41 even in a ‘quiet’ August.
August CAPE open ~41.13 (Multpl)—expensive market, wounded crowded trade.
Forbes mines the SA collapse as a cautionary tale—valuation still extreme while leverage lessons go mainstream.
CAPE still ≥40 into August (Multpl Aug open later prints ~41.13)—expensive market, wounded crowded trade.
AI share rout + forced sale does not reset CAPE; it shows how leverage expressed the valuation regime.
Price damage in AI/infrastructure names does not erase CAPE≥40; it stresses the most crowded expressions of the valuation regime.
CNN’s late-July frame: AI doubts exposing the riskiest leveraged players—overvaluation expressed via drawdowns, not a cheap CAPE.
CAPE still ≥40; concentration risk in AI infrastructure names is the live overvaluation channel.
SK Hynix’s fresh U.S. listing keeps AI-chip valuation spectacle on the tape even as leverage warnings rise.
CAPE holds the ≥40 regime (July Multpl ~40.02) even as SpaceX aftermarket digests NDX inclusion.
Morningstar later notes SPCX volatility off highs—trillion pricing meets float/index mechanics, not a cheapening CAPE.
July Multpl open ~40.02—CAPE still ≥40 into Q3 even on a holiday-shortened calendar.
SpaceX still the live trillion-scale exhibit from June’s debut; valuation floor remains extreme.
June CAPE month-end ~40.91 (YCharts) / Multpl June open ~40.16—still elevated into midsummer.
Lipper/Reuters wraps: debt-funded tech CapEx + SpaceX bond-market narrative feed valuation anxiety even as CAPE stays extreme.
Post-debut, SpaceX’s trillion-scale mark remains the live overvaluation exhibit; CAPE still ≥40 (Multpl June ~40.16).
Business Insider later window captures Burry’s S-1 critique—‘nothing suggests $1T let alone $2T’—belief/valuation friction after the confetti.
AP: SpaceX debuts near $1.77T after ~$18.7B revenue and ~$2.6B operating loss—fundamentals vs trillion pricing.
Reuters: record ~$75B IPO at $135; CNBC: SPCX closes ~$161 (+19%) with ~$2.1T mark—aftermarket as valuation amplifier.
CAPE still ≥40 into June (Multpl June open ~40.16).
SpaceX publicly sets $135—Reuters: aiming to raise ~$75B at ~$1.75T, among the largest U.S.-listed valuations on day one.
June Multpl CAPE open ~40.16—still ≥40 into roadshow week.
CNBC: Anthropic’s $965B Series H + confidential filing compress AI valuation spectacle into the same week as SpaceX’s fixed-price roadshow.
Anthropic Series H (May 28): $65B raise at $965B post-money beside ~$47B run-rate revenue—primary company disclosure pricing an astonishing future.
May CAPE holds ≥40; YCharts month-end ~40.60 beside Multpl May open ~40.11.
CNBC: Anthropic tops OpenAI as most valuable AI startup on the $965B mark—private primary as overvaluation exhibit.
Bloomberg: Michael Burry warns the tech jump echoes the 2000 peak—high-credibility dissent priced into the narrative.
CAPE still ≥40 (May Multpl ~40.11); Fortune’s CAPE>40 essay remains the valuation soundtrack.
Fortune (May 20): SpaceX S-1 shows $18.7B revenue beside heavy losses—fundamentals vs trillion-scale IPO talk make Overvaluation concrete.
CAPE remains above 40 on the May Multpl series (~40.11 open)—overvaluation horseman stays in the saddle without needing a new shock print.
Fortune’s May 13 CAPE essay still frames the week: past 40 is not ‘normal expensive’—it is the rare ≥40 regime last seen in 1999–2000.
Multpl’s May Shiller CAPE open prints ~40.11—first sustained ≥40 month of the backfill window after April’s ~38.15.
Fortune (May 13 window): CAPE past 40.3 on May 11—only exceeded 40 in the continuous Jan 1999–Sep 2000 stretch before this cycle.
Motley Fool (May 15): Mag7 concentration risk—tech/growth weight in the S&P is a structural overvaluation amplifier even before SpaceX prices.
May Multpl CAPE open ~40.11 lands on the calendar’s doorstep—this Saturday is the last full week before the ≥40 regime the May 9 digest stamps.
Anthropic $900B funding talk (Apr 29) would more than double the Feb $380B Series G—private AI marks sprint toward SoftBank-scale fantasy.
At $900B Anthropic would top OpenAI’s fresh $852B mark—valuation race, not just fundraising, becomes the Overvaluation datapoint.
Ferrante (Apr 21): Mag7 ~34% of S&P—more concentrated than Nifty Fifty peak (~24%) and 2000 top-7 tech (~22–24%); weight risk exceeds multiple risk.
StockWireX / market estimates: Mag7 ~33.7% by April 2026; four mega-tech names alone ~17% of index weight—passive buyers are leveraged to the crowded trade.
CAPE still ~38 on April Multpl—concentration + cyclically-adjusted expense travel together into the May ≥40 break.
April CAPE ~38.15 Multpl open—recovery from March’s soft print is underway; public valuation re-tightens toward the May ≥40 break.
Lost-decade CAPE math (~37.9 mid-April essays) keeps the ‘expensive for a decade’ framing in circulation even as prices heal.
Mag7 still roughly one-third of S&P weight—concentration risk essays proliferate into late April (Ferrante ~34% Apr 21 window).
April Multpl CAPE open ~38.15—rebounding from March’s ~37.04 soft print as the index recovers toward record territory into late April.
Medium CAPE essay (Apr 7 window): spot CAPE ~37.94—second-highest sustained regime in a 50-year sample behind only 1999–2001; predicted decade returns ~1.7% nominal.
OpenAI $852B private mark remains the valuation anchor for ‘what AI is worth’—even skeptics arguing contingent capital still concede the headline multiple.
OpenAI closes $122B committed capital at $852B post-money (Mar 31)—private AI mark now sits in ‘half a SoftBank Vision Fund’ territory.
SpaceX confidential path aims >$1.75T public ask—issuance fantasy valuation now larger than most public mega-caps’ entire floats.
Public CAPE still March-regime (~37 open) heading into April’s Multpl ~38.15—private marks sprint ahead of the public cyclically-adjusted tape.
Fool (Mar 26): tech has lost >$1T YTD on paper—yet Mag7 ETF ~−10% and S&P only ~5% off highs; percentage drawdown still modest vs a true bubble burst.
Same Fool piece: Mag7 average P/E ~28.5× roughly in-line with S&P ~27.5×—‘bubble burst’ claim fails the depth test even as SaaS gets crushed.
Man Group floor note: early-March CAPE ~39 vs ~25 40-year average—mean-reversion math still implies large drawdown risk even after the soft patch.
CAPE still ~37–38 on the March Multpl/spot wraps—price weakness has not delivered a valuation reset into ‘normal expensive.’
Buffett Indicator / CAPE twin framing (Value-of-Stock): market still ~2× historical norms even as the SaaS sleeve gets smoked.
Mag7 concentration (~⅓ S&P) means index ‘cheapening’ is slow even when software multiples compress—structural overvaluation amplifier.
Motley Fool (Mar 16 window): CAPE ~39—more than double long-run average and ‘first alarm in 25 years’ framing vs Depression / dot-com precedents.
Value-of-Stock mid-March wrap later stamps CAPE ~37.51 (Mar 20)—still ~2.2× historical mean even after the early-March soft patch.
Hyperscaler AI capex narrative still props earnings hopes—Fool notes MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META chip spend as the CAPE support story, not a reset.
Multpl March open prints CAPE ~37.04—down from February’s ~39.02 as the S&P softens off highs (cape series SP ~6654 vs Feb ~6894).
Even at ~37, CAPE sits ~2× the long-run mean—cooling is not cheap; Man Group later frames early-March CAPE ~39 vs a ~25 40-year average.
Mag7 still ~⅓ of the S&P—concentration remains the quiet twin of CAPE even while mega-caps digest YTD soft tape.