WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2026
Mixed (−4): Anthropic mid-Oct, OpenAI not 2026, Lipper −$32B holds
How bubbly: 237/400. CAPE keeps I elevated; II cooler on Altman’s 2026 hard-off; III soft mega-window (Anthropic mid-Oct) without hijacking market-wide net issuance; IV muted on new entrants—Lipper −$32B is color only. Mixed. Mixed.
III with megas 58without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 52
II cooler on Altman hard-off + dual-CEO pacing; III soft mega-window; IV not crushed by Lipper −$32B.
Overvaluation
- ADVANCE
Reuters (Sep 11): Anthropic courts ~$2T IPO; Nvidia eyed as ~$10B anchor—ask distinct from May’s ~$965B Series H private mark.
- ADVANCE
Multpl CAPE 41.09 (Fri Sep 11); Motley Fool ~41.7 (Sep 10/12)—still north of 40; only prior multi-month CAPE>40 run was 1999–2000.
- ADVANCE
Mag7 still ~⅓ of the S&P—concentration as the quiet twin of CAPE (~33–34% Fool Research framing).
Bubble beliefs
- MIXED
Amodei “pace the frontier” + Altman IPO “ill-advised” in 2026—dual-CEO safety/pacing undercuts pure FOMO even as Anthropic’s calendar stays live.
- ADVANCE
Breakingviews: AI “neoclouds” rhyme with 1999–2000 altnets—data-center upstarts, vendor finance, GPU leverage.
- MIXED
CNBC: early-stage VCs talk shakeout—selectivity rising on apps vs infrastructure; FOMO cooling at the edges.
Issuance
- MIXED
Dating board: Anthropic soft mid-Oct marketing (prospectus late Sep / pre-midterms listing talk); Altman rules out OpenAI IPO in 2026 on safety grounds.
- ADVANCE
NSE India IPO locked: subscription Sep 17–21 / list ~Sep 24; band ₹1,700–1,785 (size cut >15% earlier, calendar locked).
- ADVANCE
Dangote Refinery IPO: subscription opens Sep 14 / closes Oct 13—Africa’s largest-ever share sale.
Inflows
- RETREAT
Reuters Lipper: U.S. equity funds −$32.27B in week through Sep 9—nine-month high outflow; large-cap −$40.44B; third consecutive Lipper U.S. equity outflow week.
- MIXED
Same Lipper print: tech sector funds +$1.71B; bond funds 21st straight inflow week (+$6.56B)—selective FOMO inside a risk-off week.
Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.
CONTEXT OVER TIME
See this week on the Horsemen Index chart
Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-09-12 against the full archive series.
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