How bubbly are we?237 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV
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Week read · Mixed

WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2026

Mixed (−4): Anthropic mid-Oct, OpenAI not 2026, Lipper −$32B holds

How bubbly: 237/400. CAPE keeps I elevated; II cooler on Altman’s 2026 hard-off; III soft mega-window (Anthropic mid-Oct) without hijacking market-wide net issuance; IV muted on new entrants—Lipper −$32B is color only. Mixed. Mixed.

How bubbly are we?237 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV
I Overvaluation75
II Bubble beliefs58
III Issuance58
IV Inflows46

III with megas 58without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 52

II cooler on Altman hard-off + dual-CEO pacing; III soft mega-window; IV not crushed by Lipper −$32B.

Overvaluation

Bubble beliefs

Issuance

Inflows

  • RETREAT

    Reuters Lipper: U.S. equity funds −$32.27B in week through Sep 9—nine-month high outflow; large-cap −$40.44B; third consecutive Lipper U.S. equity outflow week.

  • MIXED

    Same Lipper print: tech sector funds +$1.71B; bond funds 21st straight inflow week (+$6.56B)—selective FOMO inside a risk-off week.

Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.

CONTEXT OVER TIME

See this week on the Horsemen Index chart

Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-09-12 against the full archive series.

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