WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2026
Second Lipper outflow week; Dangote IPO papers signed
How bubbly: 236/400. Issuance appetite is globalizing (Dangote) even as U.S. equity fund flows retreat—horsemen are not marching in lockstep. Mixed.
III with megas 56without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 50
III lifts on Dangote (non-U.S. mega secondary); III′ firmer; IV still no U.S. new-entrant stampede.
Overvaluation
- ADVANCE
Motley Fool (Sep 7): CAPE over 41—most expensive since late-1999/2000 outside that peak neighborhood.
- ADVANCE
Multpl Sep open ~40.90 / Sep 11 ~41.09—overvaluation horseman still in the saddle.
Sources
Bubble beliefs
- ADVANCE
Valuation-as-bubble essays re-enter retail media as CAPE >41 narratives spread.
Sources - ADVANCE
digit.fyi / FT-family: Anthropic nears public filing as banks jostle—belief spectacle rebuilding after August’s flow chill.
Issuance
- ADVANCE
Sep 7: Dangote signs refinery IPO papers; ~4.1B shares at ₦525, subscription Sep 14–Oct 13—~$49B valuation / ~$1.6B raise framing.
- CONTEXT
WITH megas still dominated by pending Anthropic/OpenAI calendar; WITHOUT megas, Dangote alone lifts global issuance breadth.
- ADVANCE
Anthropic: public filing could come ‘as soon as next week’ in FT-family coverage—calendar crowded, not cancelled.
Inflows
- RETREAT
Lipper: second weekly U.S. equity outflow (−$11.12B week through Sep 2) after −$22B+ prior week; money markets bid (~$48.76B).
- MIXED
Issuance appetite is globalizing even as U.S. equity fund flows retreat—horsemen are not marching in lockstep.
Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.
CONTEXT OVER TIME
See this week on the Horsemen Index chart
Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-09-05 against the full archive series.
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