WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, AUGUST 29, 2026

Lipper: U.S. equity funds’ biggest weekly outflow since March

How bubbly: 229/400. Lipper’s biggest U.S. equity outflow since March is digest color—IV stays mid without a retail stampede; CAPE refuses to look cheap. Mixed.

How bubbly are we?229 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV

I Overvaluation73

II Bubble beliefs58

III Issuance50

IV Inflows48

III with megas 50without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 45

Lipper −$22B is digest color—IV holds mid without a retail stampede; CAPE keeps I elevated.

Overvaluation

ADVANCE
CAPE still extreme even as flows flee U.S. large-cap equity funds (Multpl Aug ~41.13).
Sources
Multpl · Shiller PE by month
MIXED
Nvidia IR (Aug 26): $96.2B revenue / $108B Q3 guide—fundamentals fireworks that do not cheapen CAPE.
Sources
NVIDIA IR · Q2 FY27 results Multpl · CAPE still elevated

Bubble beliefs

MIXED
Outflow + AI reassessment ahead of Nvidia earnings is ‘know it’s expensive’ behavior expressed via redemptions, not just tweets.
Sources
Reuters (syndicated) · Outflows ahead of Nvidia/Fed Reuters (syndicated) · Lipper weekly wrap

Issuance

MIXED
No SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI primary; III soft without megas.
Sources
OpenAI · OpenAI confidential Anthropic · Anthropic confidential
CONTEXT
Nvidia’s print is not equity issuance—but it is the AI CapEx bellwether the IPO calendar trades against.
Sources
NVIDIA IR · Data-center revenue / outlook

Inflows

RETREAT
LSEG Lipper: U.S. equity funds −$22.33B in week to Aug 26 (largest since March); large-cap −$24.73B while mid/small still saw inflows.
Sources
Reuters (syndicated) · Biggest weekly outflow since March Reuters (syndicated) · Lipper −$22.33B wrap
RETREAT
Inflows horseman flashing Retreat: redemption, not stampede—while CAPE refuses to look cheap.
Sources
Reuters (syndicated) · −$22.33B U.S. equity funds

Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.

CONTEXT OVER TIME

See this week on the Horsemen Index chart

Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-08-29 against the full archive series.

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