WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, AUGUST 22, 2026

Anthropic $65B ARR + Lipper +$11.72B into Nvidia/Fed event risk

How bubbly: 238/400. Anthropic’s $65B ARR refill meets Lipper’s +$11.72B rebound under CAPE≥41—Mixed overall as Nvidia/Fed event risk looms.

How bubbly are we?238 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV

I Overvaluation74

II Bubble beliefs60

III Issuance52

IV Inflows52

III with megas 52without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 45

Slight IV firming into Nvidia/Fed event risk; ARR print lifts II optics without a survey spike.

Overvaluation

ADVANCE
CAPE remains historically elevated into late August (Multpl Aug ~41.13).
Sources
Multpl · Shiller PE by month
MIXED
Strong earnings / cooler inflation (Lipper wrap) support prices without resetting the CAPE regime.
Sources
Reuters · Inflows despite market pressures Multpl · CAPE elevated
ADVANCE
Anthropic ARR >$65B (end-July, reported Aug 17) with investor models floating ≥$2T public asks—private growth marks as overvaluation twin of CAPE≥41.
Sources
TechCrunch · ARR $65B / $2T IPO talk

Bubble beliefs

MIXED
Market focused on upcoming Nvidia earnings + Fed/Jackson Hole calendar—event-risk belief, not a new bubble survey.
Sources
Reuters (syndicated) · Nvidia earnings / Fed event setup
ADVANCE
TechCrunch/FT: Anthropic investors model year-end ARR $100–120B and ≥$2T IPO—FOMO language returns via revenue, not CAPE essays.
Sources
TechCrunch · Investor ARR / $2T framing
MIXED
OpenAI still confidentially filed (Jun 8) with looser timeline vs Anthropic’s fall ambition—dual-track belief: race vs ‘not racing.’
Sources
OpenAI · OpenAI confidential S-1 Value Add Pulse · Parallel IPO tracks

Issuance

ADVANCE
Anthropic fall IPO watchlist heats on $65B ARR + early investor meetings; public filing still not out this week.
Sources
TechCrunch · Fall IPO / ARR surge Anthropic · Confidential draft S-1
MIXED
OpenAI confidential path unchanged—III without megas stays mid; mega calendar is Anthropic-led this fortnight.
Sources
OpenAI · OpenAI confidential

Inflows

ADVANCE
Reuters Lipper: U.S. equity funds +$11.72B week through Aug 19—firming into Nvidia/Fed event risk.
Sources
Reuters · +$11.72B inflows
MIXED
Event-risk positioning: the same Reuters family later stamps a post-Nvidia outflow week—this Saturday’s +$11.72B is the calm before that print.
Sources
Reuters (syndicated) · Post-week outflow setup

Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.

CONTEXT OVER TIME

See this week on the Horsemen Index chart

Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-08-22 against the full archive series.

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