OFFTAKE DIAL · ANTHROPIC + OPENAI RUN-RATE

Lab ARR
is the offtake dial.

After AllVentured flagged apparent ARR growth deceleration, Bubble Burster tracks sourcedAnthropic and OpenAI annualized revenue / ARR prints — company disclosures first, then Reuters / Bloomberg / Axios / NYT. Annualized run-rate is often month×12, not GAAP booked revenue; the two labs may not account alike. Gerstner's Flight Path hurdles sit as offtake framing on the chart (stall / takeoff / YE combined), not as disclosed ARR.

ANTHROPIC$100BREPORTED · 2026-09-18+54% step · $65B → $100B (~2 mo)

OPENAI$70BREPORTED · 2026-09-29+75% step · $40B → $70B (~2 mo)

COMBINED$170BYE offtake check ≥$180B (Gerstner ×12)$10B short of YE ≥~$180B framing

01 · COMBINED LINE + GERSTNER OVERLAY

Prints over time. Hurdles labeled.

As-of Sep 30, 2026 · 12 sourced points (5 company · 5 reported). Horizontal bands annualize Gerstner monthly offtake (×12) for chart framing only. Compare those hurdles with the Combined Anthropic + OpenAI line, not either lab alone.

THREE SERIES · SOURCED RUN-RATE PRINTS

Anthropic + OpenAI annualized revenue

Dated ARR / annualized run-rate prints plus a forward-filled Combined line. COMPANY disclosures, press-reported figures, third-party rumors, and modeled YE checkpoints are labeled separately so a TickerTrends track is never confused with an Anthropic blog print — or a Gerstner offtake hurdle. Gerstner horizontals are compared with combined annualized offtake framing, not either lab alone.

ANTHROPIC · LATEST HERO$100BREPORTED · Pacing >$100B annualized (NYT via Axios)

OPENAI · LATEST HERO$70BREPORTED · ARR / annualized nears $70B (Axios)

COMBINED · HERO SUM$170Bvs Gerstner YE ≥$180B offtake check (×12 framing)

Series starts near YE 2024 / early 2025 disclosed run-rates. Horizontal bands are Gerstner offtake hurdles (monthly × 12), not GAAP ARR.

◆ Company● Reported○ Rumor / 3P◇ Modeled━ Combined · forward-fill + sum— Gerstner offtake (×12) vs combined

SOURCE ROSTER · EVERY POINT LINKED

Hover the chart or read the table · newest first · on small screens, tap + for kind, note, and source. Digests should append to app/lab-arr/data.ts.

Dec 31, 2026ANTHROPIC$110B◇ MODELED
Investor modeled YE 2026 · $100–120B (mid $110B) — MODELED only — investor expectations for YE 2026 run-rate in the $100–120B band (FT/Axios era reporting). Not an actual print. Midpoint charted for geometry; Sep NYT ~$100B pace already sits at the floor of that band.FT / Axios (investor modeled) ↗
Sep 29, 2026OPENAI$70B● REPORTED
ARR / annualized nears $70B (Axios) — Axios Sep 29: annualized revenue run rate almost $70B; >70% growth since start of Q3; B2B more than doubled since July. Reuters confirmed same day.Axios ↗
Sep 24, 2026ANTHROPIC$76.8B○ RUMOR / 3P
TickerTrends 3P track ~$76.8B (low confidence) — Third-party tracker (also cited in deceleration chatter). Conflicts with NYT/Axios ~$100B pace days earlier — treat as low-confidence RUMOR, not a primary print.TickerTrends ↗
Sep 18, 2026ANTHROPIC$100B● REPORTED
Pacing >$100B annualized (NYT via Axios) — Axios Sep 18 summarizing NYT: pacing to generate more than $100B in annual revenue — up ~50% from the July ~$65B print. Still a run-rate, not audited GAAP.Axios (NYT) ↗
Aug 13, 2026OPENAI$40B● REPORTED
Annualized >$40B (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg Aug 13: on track for >$40B annualized based on then-current performance — roughly 2× YE 2025. Axios Aug 17 also cites Brockman internal ~$40B.Bloomberg ↗
Jul 31, 2026ANTHROPIC$65B● REPORTED
End-July ARR ~$65B (Bloomberg / Axios) — Axios Aug 17 citing Bloomberg: ~$65B annualized run-rate hit end of July. ~7× YE 2025.Axios (Bloomberg) ↗
May 15, 2026ANTHROPIC$47B◆ COMPANY
Series H era · crossed $47B (earlier May) — Series H blog (May 28): run-rate revenue “crossed $47 billion earlier this month.” Date pinned mid-May.Anthropic ↗
Apr 20, 2026ANTHROPIC$30B◆ COMPANY
Amazon compute post · >$30B run-rate — Company: “Our run-rate revenue has now surpassed $30 billion.”Anthropic ↗
Feb 28, 2026OPENAI$25B● REPORTED
End-Feb ~$25B annualized (The Information) — Reuters Mar 4: The Information said OpenAI topped $25B annualized as of end-Feb (~17% above a ~$21.4B YE figure). Reuters could not independently verify.Reuters (The Information) ↗
Feb 12, 2026ANTHROPIC$14B◆ COMPANY
Series G disclosure · $14B run-rate — Company: “Today, our run-rate revenue is $14 billion,” growing >10× annually for three years.Anthropic ↗
Dec 31, 2025ANTHROPIC$9B◆ COMPANY
YE 2025 run-rate ~$9B — Company Amazon compute post (Apr 20, 2026): run-rate “up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025.”Anthropic ↗
Dec 31, 2025OPENAI$20B◆ COMPANY
YE 2025 annualized >$20B (Friar) — CFO Sarah Friar blog (via Reuters Jan 19, 2026): annualized revenue surpassed $20B in 2025 (from $6B in 2024). The Information later cited ~$21.4B YE run-rate.Reuters (OpenAI / Friar) ↗

02 · DECELERATION COLOR (NOT GOSPEL)

Second derivative is interesting. One X post isn't.

AllVentured highlighted apparent MoM ARR slowing via third-party trackers (e.g. TickerTrends-style Anthropic ~$76.8B with ~1.8% sequential). That second-derivative read is worth watching — especially if company-adjacent leaks corroborate. It is not, by itself, proof that “decline is near.”

Same-week counterweight: Axios (Sep 29) put OpenAI near ~$70Bannualized after a >70% climb since early Q3, and NYT/Axios (Sep 18) put Anthropic pacing above ~$100B — already at the floor of the investor-modeled YE $100–120B band. Treat tracker-only MoM prints as low-confidence until a company blog, Bloomberg, Reuters, Axios, NYT, or FT confirms.

03 · GERSTNER OFFTAKE FRAMING

Monthly offtake × 12 on the chart.

Credit: Brad Gerstner / Altimeter on All-In “Flight Path: Balance of 2026,” episode Sep 17 2026.

STALL ~$4B/mo → ~$48B/yr combined framing
TAKEOFF ~$8B/mo → ~$96B/yr combined framing
YE CHECK Collective path needs ≥~$180B YE 2026
LABEL Offtake hurdles — not disclosed lab ARR / GAAP

Takeoff ~$8B/mo AI lab offtake; stall ~$4B/mo. Collective path ~$100B → need ≥~$180B YE 2026. Overlay annualizes monthly offtake (×12) for chart framing only — not GAAP booked revenue.

Timeline already carries EST Lab ARR print windows and Gerstner markers — see the Plan Timeline.

04 · CROSS-LINKS

Same bet, other dials.

Offtake next to CapEx financing, token demand, private marks, and the dating board.

FINANCING

Bank of NVDACrack paths on the financed demand stack — CoreWeave as canary.

DEMAND

Token runwayEvercore base-case token stack — physical twin of offtake.

MARKS

Valuation raceAnthropic / OpenAI / SpaceX sourced valuation marks.

DATING BOARD

Plan TimelineGerstner Flight Path markers + EST Lab ARR print windows.

05 · METHODOLOGY / CAVEATS

Disclosed vs estimate. Always.

Prefer primary company blogs, then Reuters / Bloomberg / Axios / NYT / FT / Sacra. Kind labels are mandatory on every row.

Run-rate ≠ GAAP Annualized figures often annualize a recent month or short window. Booked fiscal revenue will look different in an S-1.
Not apples-to-apples Anthropic and OpenAI may treat reseller / cloud / partner revenue differently (gross vs net). Axios explicitly flagged measurement caveats when comparing the two.
Leak quality RUMOR / third-party trackers (TickerTrends-style) stay on the roster with low confidence when they circulate in deceleration debates — they do not override COMPANY or top-tier REPORTED prints.
Modeled YE Investor $100–120B Anthropic YE 2026 expectations are MODELED only (midpoint charted). A Sep NYT/Axios ~$100B pace print is a separate REPORTED point at the band floor.
Gerstner overlay Stall / takeoff / YE bands annualize monthly offtake (×12) for framing. They are not company-disclosed ARR lines.
Disclaimer Annualized run-rate / ARR prints are not GAAP booked revenue (often latest month × 12). Anthropic vs OpenAI accounting may differ (e.g. reseller/cloud gross vs net) — not apples-to-apples. Leak quality varies; S-1 filings when public will supersede. Not investment advice.