Mixed (−2): Anthropic S-1 penciled for Oct 26, AI credit cracks, Lipper inflow returns

Owen Lamont: “The crash that wasn’t” — The four-horsemen originator says Shiller’s excess CAPE yield (expected stock premium over real 10-year rates) has fallen to 0.6% from 1.6% in January; it hit −1.5% at the January 2000 peak (and 0.6% in Nov 1994). Stocks are up 14% this year even though real 10-year rates rose about 1 point; either AI growth expectations outran the rate rise, or the market has failed to react — he calls the second “plausible.”

CAPE slips to 40.54 as AI stocks sell off — Multpl’s Shiller CAPE closed Fri Oct 16 at 40.54, down from 41.87 a week earlier. The S&P 500 fell 2% on the week (worst since June) and the Nasdaq 4.5% as AI and chip names sank after hot CPI and PPI prints. Still above 40, the regime last held in 1999–2000.

10-year: spike to ~5.33% intraday, then 5.09% close — After Wednesday’s CPI the 10-year jumped to about 5.33% intraday before the tech selloff sent money into Treasuries. The official par curve closed it at 5.09% Fri Oct 16, down from 5.24% on Oct 9 (30-year 5.43%). Futures put a December Fed hike at about 89%.

Anthropic’s numbers land — and the valuation talk drops — At its Oct 14 investor day Anthropic told attendees Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up 45% from Q2’s $11.6B, and adjusted-profitable. But growth had more than doubled the quarter before, and Reuters (exclusive, four sources) says some investors are now discussing about $1.5T instead of the ~$2T expected. That’s color, not a price. Stocks read the update as a negative.

The bond market says the quiet part out loud — Axios: “The debt-fueled AI boom is cracking.” Gartner sees $7T of AI infrastructure spend through 2030 against no more than $3.6T of related revenue. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria calls the neoclouds “the subprime tranche of the AI trade,” and Broadcom’s Hock Tan likened the rush for anything AI to “casino gambling.” CDS on Amazon, Alphabet and Meta also hit records (Reuters).

Anthropic: public S-1 penciled in for Oct 26, mid-November debut — IFR reports Anthropic plans to file its S-1 publicly on Oct 26, aiming for a mid-November debut (single unnamed source). EDGAR full-text search on Sun Oct 18: still no public Anthropic S-1. Filing Oct 26 would allow a roadshow from about Nov 10 under the 15-day rule, in line with the reported Nov 9 week; Reuters says the debut likely lands after the Nov 3 midterms. OpenAI: no change this week; still signaling 2027.

Gerstner: “weeks, not months,” and $500B+ of demand — On CNBC’s Halftime Oct 15, Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner said Anthropic will go public in “weeks, not months” and suspects demand above $500B, versus about $350B for SpaceX’s $100B offering. That night on X: still very bullish, but “the next leg higher will likely occur when AI revs re-accelerate.” He has cut his own AI exposure to “medium small.”

Firmus pulls its mega IPO; Jio sets a $3.2B one — Nvidia-backed Firmus withdrew its Australian IPO late on Oct 8 (a reported ~$5B raise at about a $30.6B valuation, per CNBC), saying the terms undervalued it, and is now exploring a ~$3B private round. In India, Jio Platforms will sell up to $3.2B of stock Oct 21–23 at about a $108B valuation, below earlier expectations. Non-mega issuance is still flowing, but at the price buyers set.

AI debt issuance falls off a cliff — Global AI-related debt issuance fell to $23B in September from $113B in June (FT data via Axios), and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says the bank is tightening credit. Debt rather than equity, so it doesn’t move the issuance dial, but it means the next mega-raise leans harder on stock.

U.S. equity funds: +$13.01B (week through Oct 14) — Lipper equity inflows came back after last week’s −$5.1B, led by large-caps at +$16.55B. Tech sector funds lost $5.21B, their biggest weekly outflow since June 24. Money markets gave back $45.93B and bond funds took in $6.45B (26th straight week). Lipper is digest color, not the IV spine.

Retail buys the CoreWeave dip — CoreWeave fell about 25% on the week, its worst since Nov 2025. Retail still bought a net $66M of the stock, the second-highest week on Vanda’s record, and ARK funds added more than 381,000 shares. That’s dip-buying by people already in, not a new-entrant stampede.

Leverage stays near records — FINRA margin debt was $1.480T in September (+31.4% YoY, +1.8% from August’s $1.454T), 1.5% below June’s record $1.502T.