How bubbly are we?236 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV
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Week read · Mixed

WEEK ENDING SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2026

Mixed (+1): CAPE 41.48, Anthropic S-1 absent, Lipper inflow flip

How bubbly: 236/400. Bubbly on price (CAPE ~41.5) and softer on the U.S. mega calendar as Anthropic’s public prospectus stays off EDGAR. Beliefs stay mixed — model race and price cuts vs safety pacing. Watch whether a public S-1 appears before any October roadshow can be real, and whether next week’s Lipper print confirms the inflow or snaps back. Mixed.

How bubbly are we?236 / 400Horsemen Index · Σ of I+II+III+IV
I Overvaluation76
II Bubble beliefs58
III Issuance54
IV Inflows48

III with megas 54without SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 52

Soft +1 from Sep 19 (235): CAPE keeps I elevated; model race and price cuts keep II mixed; absent Anthropic S-1 softens III; Lipper’s inflow flip lifts IV without a new-entrant stampede.

Overvaluation

  • ADVANCE

    Shiller CAPE still north of 40 (Multpl 41.48 Fri Sep 25).

    Sources
    Multpl
  • ADVANCE

    Anthropic ~$2T IPO ask still the live multiple; public prospectus still absent — Private Series H $965B stays on the valuation-race chart; the rumored ~$2T ask is not a closed mark. Delay does not cheapen the ask story.

    Sources
    ReutersAnthropic

Bubble beliefs

  • MIXED

    Model race + price wars vs “pace the frontier” — Fortune frames OpenAI and Anthropic releasing more-affordable models into a price-war tape even after Amodei’s Sep 12 slowdown essay — safety talk and acceleration share the stage.

    Sources
    FortuneDario Amodei
  • MIXED

    Astra share vs Claude keeps FOMO complicated — Reuters: GPT-6 Astra ~13% of Ramp-tracked enterprise AI spend vs Claude Fable ~8%; Anthropic weighing a counter-model ahead of IPO while Altman keeps OpenAI off the 2026 board.

    Sources
    Reuters
  • MIXED

    Standing Lamont frame (no new Owenomics this week) — Acadian “IPOs of doom” (Sep) still the latest first-class Lamont note on Anthropic as a symbolic new-issue moment. Nothing newer from Owenomics landed this week.

    Sources
    Acadian / Owenomics

Issuance

  • RETREAT

    Anthropic public S-1 still missing from EDGAR (as of Sep 26) — Confidential draft filed June 1; late-September prospectus window that Reuters had flagged is now closing without a public print. October roadshow math gets harder without EDGAR.

    Sources
    ReutersForkastSEC
  • ADVANCE

    NSE India listed ~Sep 24 near issue price — India’s national stock exchange debuted on BSE around ₹1,800 (issue ₹1,785) — flat-to-modest premium after heavy subscription. Non-mega issuance pulse, not an AI mega.

    Sources
    Indian ExpressOutlook Money
  • ADVANCE

    Dangote Refinery IPO still open through Oct 13 — Africa’s largest-ever share sale keeps the non-U.S. mega secondary track warm.

    Sources
    Reuters

Inflows

  • ADVANCE

    U.S. equity funds: ~$37.6B inflows (week ended Sep 25) — First Lipper U.S. equity inflow week in five — largest weekly net purchase since June 17 — led by large-caps (~$36.6B) and tech sector funds (~$4.89B). Lipper remains digest color, not the IV spine.

    Sources
    Reuters
  • MIXED

    Still no clear new-entrant stampede — The inflow flip ends a four-week redemption streak and shows AI-demand buying, but brokerage/foreign new-entrant proxies are not printing a cab-driver stampede. IV firms off the floor; it does not max.

Horsemen Index — How bubbly are we? = I + II + III + IV (max 400). Equal-weight Lamont-hybrid; no fancy composite. Chart overall series plots Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis beside the four dials. III′ (issuanceWithoutMegas) charts the non-mega track so SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI/≥$10B megas cannot fully hijack the main III dial. Editorial judgment—not a vendor index.

CONTEXT OVER TIME

See this week on the Horsemen Index chart

Toggle I–IV and the overall “How bubbly are we?” series (Σ÷4 on the shared 0–100 axis) to compare week ending 2026-09-26 against the full archive series.

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